Israel intended to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities as early as May, but US President Donald Trump decided against an attack in favour of negotiations according to the New York Times.
Trump’s decision apparently came “after months of internal debate” about whether to pursue a military or diplomatic option in his dealings with Tehran.
Even the more hawkish members of Trump’s cabinet are believed to have expressed scepticism that a military strike could completely destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions, resulting in a “rough consensus” that for the time being negotiation was the better option.
Israel, which has long been though to be preparing an attack on Iran, with or without US help, sees the current conditions as favourable to an attempt to destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear sites.
Its air force has already eliminated most of Iran’s air defences, and has severely damaged its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. Likewise, the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December eliminated a key Iranian ally that acted as a conduit for Iranian arms to Hezbollah.
According to the NYT, senior Israeli officials pitched a plan to their American counterparts that would have combined an Israeli commando raid on underground nuclear sites with a bombing effort involving US aircraft. The goal was reportedly to set back Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon by a year or more.
However, Israel’s military is reported to have said the commando operation wouldn’t be ready until October. As Prime Minister Netanyahu sought to bring the strike forward, Israeli planners reportedly shifted to a proposal for an extended bombing campaign only, with greater reliance on US support.
US officials were apparently open to considering Israel’s plans and Michael Kurilla, head of US Central Command, and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz discussed they could offer support.
Washington’s assistance would have focused on responding to Iranian retaliation against Israel, and ensuring the attack itself was successful, similarly to when US forces assisted Israel in intercepting Iranian missile attacks in April and October of last year.
Iran’s attacks were ineffective in that instance, with most of its missiles and drones failing to reach their targets. Israel’s counterattacks against Tehran’s anti-aircraft systems left the country open to attack, something Jerusalem is keen to capitalise on, according to the report.
However, during a meeting with Netanyahu in the Oval Office on April 7, Trump unexpectedly announced to reporters that he would pursue talks with Iran instead.
The Israeli PM, in a video released by his office the next day, said an agreement would work only if Iran agreed to completely dismantle its nuclear facilities.
“They go in, blow up the installations, dismantle all of the equipment under American supervision and carried out by America – this would be good,” he said.
He also warned that Tehran may try to play for time: “The second possibility – that will not be – is that they drag out the talks, and then there is the military option. Everyone understands this.”
However, Trump has stated that the military route remains on the table, claiming that the US will conduct strikes against Iran if a deal is not agreed within the next few months.
Talks began in Oman last weekend, conducted through mediators, and are scheduled for a second round in Rome on Saturday, with the prospect that they could be direct negotiations.
Reports suggested that the two sides might compromise on a deal to dilute Iran’s stock of enriched uranium, but Washington later stated that a complete halt of any weaponisation programme would be accepted. Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi responded by insisting that Tehran would not allow total denuclearisation, while his department threatened to expel UN nuclear inspectors.
