The Trump administration has reportedly dropped normalisation of relations with Israel as a pre-condition for Saudi Arabia to strike a nuclear deal with the US.
According to Reuters, the “major concession” was decided ahead of Trump’s tour of the region next week, during which he will visit Saudi, Qatar and the UAE – but not Israel.
Washington and Riyadh have been negotiating a civil nuclear deal for several years as the Kingdom looks to reduce its domestic reliance on fossil fuels, which would allow it to profitably export more of its vast crude oil reserves.
Saudi officials have also hinted at a uranium enrichment programme to produce fuel for nuclear power stations, which could also be sold globally.
Most concerning to the US, though, is the indications from the Gulf state that, were its regional rival Iran to gain a nuclear weapon, it would feel the need to do the same.
Talks between the Trump administration and Tehran about the restriction of the latter’s nuclear programme are yet to yield an agreement.
The separate deal under discussion with Saudi Arabia would seek to address some of these issues, though its energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has previously ruled out limiting uranium enrichment.
However, the normalisation of Saudi-Israeli relations had proved a key sticking point, with Riyadh declining to recognise Israel until the establishment of a Palestinian state – much to the frustration of former president Biden.
A normalisation agreement was believed to be on the brink in the latter half of 2023, but was derailed by the October 7 massacres and subsequent Gaza War. Indeed, it has long been suspected by some analysts that Hamas was partly motivated in carrying out the attacks by the chance of derailing those negotiations.
And, in February this year, the Saudi Foreign Ministry ruled out normalisation under Trump’s plan for the redevelopment of Gaza and seemingly reverted to linking the move to the agreement of a two-state solution.
Nonetheless, Trump reportedly dropping the Biden-era requirement that any nuclear deal include normalisation has fuelled concern in Israel that the US President is willing to conduct Middle East policy unilaterally.
Just this week, the US agreed a ceasefire with the Iran-back Houthi terror group in Yemen following the latter’s commitment to cease attacks on American ships in the Red Sea. It is understood the decision was made without consulting Jerusalem and irrespective of the fact that the Houthis continue to strike Israel.
Likewise, reports coming out of the Iran nuclear talks suggest that the Trump administration, though denying it publicly, is willing to accept a compromise deal limiting uranium enrichment without totally dismantling the Islamic Republic’s nuclear infrastructure.
Israel has long insisted that nothing short of complete denuclearisation can be tolerated but the new White House is reportedly increasingly branching out on its own.
Commenting on the Saudi case in particular, Israel’s former ambassador to the US, Mike Herzog, told public broadcaster Kan that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not “willing to pay the price” for normalisation.
He said: “Since Israel is planning to widen the operation in Gaza, normalisation is getting farther away.
"I think Israel should make [normalisation] a very high priority. I don’t think Netanyahu doesn’t want it, but he probably isn’t willing to pay the price. I think it’s a missed opportunity
"Trump was elected over the ‘America first’ stance and he is implementing it. This means, all the rest, including Israel, come after American interests.”
Herzog did add that a new hostage deal with Hamas could reopen the prospect of normalisation, but Israeli officials have already set a stringent deadline for one to be agreed.
Defence Minister Israel Katz announced in recent days that the chances of a deal would “vanish” if none is struck by the time Trump concludes his regional tour next week.
