After Israel’s humiliation of Iran, a historic reshaping of the Middle East may already be underway

Recent media coverage of Israel’s war against Iran has, understandably, raised questions about the extent of the damage caused to its nuclear capabilities. Have Iran’s uranium- enrichment facilities in Natanz, their uranium-conversion facility in Isfahan and the heavily fortified underground Fordow site simply been disfigured or completely destroyed? Did Iran manage to hide the 408 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium, or was it wiped out in the attacks? And will the assassination of Iran’s 12 top nuclear scientists delay its capabilities to make progress in its weaponisation stage?

Whatever the eventual answers, when looked at through a wider, strategic lens, the campaign against Iran scored some dramatic successes. Together with last year’s destruction of Hezbollah, it has created remarkable new opportunities for Israel to build ties with previously hostile states, as well as opening up domestic political space for Benjamin Netanyahu to exploit those opportunities. 

Perhaps the most surprising development among the diplomatic shifts resulting directly and indirectly from Israel’s victory over Iran is the budding connection with Syria, whose deposed former dictator Bashar al Assad lost his grip on power partly as a result of Israel’s destruction of his key military support, Hezbollah.

The new president of Syria, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who until recently was known as the jihadist leader “Julani”, is reportedly willing to establish official and open ties with Israel. As this article was being written, Israeli representatives were meeting al-Sharaa’s envoys to resolve a dispute over the Golan Heights border.

As a gesture of goodwill, al-Sharaa recently arranged, through Saudi Arabia, the return of the archive of legendary Israeli spy Eli Cohen – who was hanged in a central square in Damascus in 1965. The archive had been held by Syria’s brutal intelligence service.

Last week, the United States announced its intention to lift sanctions on Syria, a move that will support Syria’s faltering economy and bolster al-Sharaa’s standing.

Today, Iran’s proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen and the Shia militias in Iraq – all now understand they have lost the support of their patron. They are left on their own and must reflect on their own survival.

In Lebanon, Israel inflicted a devastating blow on Hezbollah, Iran’s primary proxy. The attacks on Hezbollah – beyond the highly publicised and widely admired beeper operation – damaged its missile capabilities and eliminated many of its commanders, including its charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

The weakening of Hezbollah, which had de-facto controlled Lebanon for 30 years and effectively created a state within a state, has strengthened the other sects in the country and enabled the formation of a new pro-Western government.

In May this year it was reported that the Lebanese army, with the help of Israeli intelligence, had largely dismantled Hezbollah’s posts and weapons stockpile in the south of the country – something that would never have been possible before.

Lebanon’s Christian president, General Joseph Aoun, is now engaged in talks with the US to stabilise the country’s institutions and supports establishing official relations with Israel.

Israel’s relationship with the US has also fundamentally shifted. This was the first time that the US, Israel’s strategic ally for more than 50 years and its main arms supplier, actively came to its aid. For at least a decade, American air-defence systems have been helping protect Israel’s skies. But never before has the US military directly participated in an Israeli war.

This time, the US Air Force deployed its formidable B-2 bombers and dropped the largest conventional bombs in the world to destroy the facility in Fordow. Even if the damage to the site was less than hoped, the operation carries unprecedented strategic significance. It sends a clear message: the US is determined to support Israel and defend its existence — even at the cost of direct military involvement. In this sense, President Donald Trump set a precedent that none of his predecessors dared even to consider.

However, this move also has a downside. Israel has always claimed that it can defend itself and does not need American or any foreign troops for its protection. Increased American military involvement also increases Israel’s dependence on the US.

Independence and sovereignty have always played a key role in the Israeli ethos, and that notion has now been cracked. But in the context of the complex, rollercoaster-like relationship between Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this development has a positive aspect that deserves recognition. It may help advance a deal in Gaza that would bring about the return of all 50 hostages – likely around 20 of whom are still alive – and bring an end to the war in Gaza.

On Monday, Netanyahu travelled to Washington for another meeting with Trump – the fourth since Trump entered the White House. Trump, whose domestic and foreign policy is largely conducted through posts on his private social network, TRUTH Social, has already written that he hopes to succeed in securing the release of the hostages and achieving a ceasefire with Hamas.

If that happens – and one must be cautious in predicting, as there have already been dozens of reports of a “dramatic breakthrough” regarding the hostages and Gaza – it could be credited as yet another byproduct of the war with Iran, and noted as an additional achievement for Israel, albeit unfortunately a belated one. After all, it is clear that there were already quite a few opportunities to clinch a deal, but Netanyahu, for personal political and electoral reasons, refrained from making a decision – also due to pressure from his far-right and messianic coalition partners, who threatened to bring down the government if such a deal were made.

In fact, the IDF has completed its missions in Gaza. This was stated explicitly this week by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir. Critics of the government, as well as ministers within it, believe that the war should have ended a year ago.

Since then, the IDF has simply been treading water and soldiers continue to be killed. Just in the past two weeks, 21 soldiers lost their lives due to the guerrilla tactics of the remaining Hamas fighters, who are carrying out hit-and-run attacks, planting explosives and booby-trapping homes that soldiers enter.

Zamir also acknowledged that the Israeli public is exhausted. The reservists, who bear the brunt of the fighting, are worn out. Some of them have served for nearly 300 days since October 7.

Their businesses are suffering and families are falling apart. Not coincidentally, this week Zamir cancelled the order to call up another reserve brigade. If a deal is reached in Gaza, its significance will go beyond the situation in the Strip.

It could pave the way for establishing an alternative local technocratic administration, backed by Egypt and other Arab countries, to replace Hamas.

In turn, this would trigger a ripple effect throughout the Arab and Muslim world. It could lead to renewed negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, which would prepare the ground for additional peace agreements with Arab and Muslim states such as Indonesia and even nuclear-armed Pakistan.

This, in essence, is Trump’s vision – to expand the Abraham Accords signed with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, which were later followed by the renewal of diplomatic relations with Morocco. Currently, talks are under way for normalisation with Saudi Arabia and Qatar – the latter being a key financial backer of Hamas, in the past even with Netanyahu’s encouragement and consent.

Iran, for its part, is beginning to grasp the new reality emerging in the Middle East and the possibility of Israel reaching agreements and normalising relations with more residents of their Middle Eastern neighbourhood – all with the backing of the United States, Western Europe, and the UK.

Above all looms the overarching question: what direction will Iran take under the leadership of its aging and paranoid supreme leader, Ali Khamenei? The blow that Israel dealt to Iran exposed the weakness of a regime that believed it had the power to destroy Israel.

Khamenei declared that Israel would be annihilated by 2040, and in Palestine Square in central Tehran, a countdown clock to that date still stands.

But in practice, that was a delusional fantasy. Israel proved that Iran is penetrable and is like an open book to its intelligence services.

Will Khamenei draw the obvious conclusions regarding Israel’s military superiority on one hand, and the weakness of the Islamic Republic – which has been exposed as a paper tiger – on the other, and shift course toward an agreement with the US and reconciliation with the West?

Such a move would naturally also reduce the regime’s hostility toward Israel.

On the other hand, it is also possible that Khamenei will lead Iran in an attempt to rebuild its military capabilities and return to confrontation with Israel – and perhaps reach the conclusion that, like North Korea, it must assemble a nuclear bomb to ensure the regime’s survival.

But even if Iran attempts to raise its head again, it knows that the Israeli Air Force, which flew through its skies as if it were a peaceful and calm country like Switzerland, can always return and strike again.