When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, Israelis across the political spectrum saw him as a breath of fresh air. After more than a year of a devastating war, finally there was a US president who seemed ready to stand unequivocally by Israel’s side, without hesitation or diplomatic daylight.
Trump acted quickly. He lifted the sanctions imposed by his predecessor, Joe Biden, against West Bank settlers, openly threatened Iran with military action, and hinted at his potential readiness to allow Israel to annex of parts of the West Bank.
Most significantly, even before taking office, he helped broker the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas.
But only a few months into Trump's second term, that initial enthusiasm is giving way to unease in Jerusalem. This change in perception stems from several recent developments, which seem to indicate a shift in the administration’s Middle East policy.
The first sign of concern is Trump’s trip to the region this week. His itinerary includes stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, but notably excludes Israel.
The decision was reminiscent of Barack Obama's 2009 Middle East visit, when he travelled to Cairo and Riyadh but bypassed Jerusalem. Obama’s trip was interpreted then as a deliberate diplomatic snub, and the same questions are resurfacing today: Is Israel no longer a priority for the Trump administration?
Then came Trump’s recent announcement of a deal with the Houthis just a day after a missile fired from Yemen struck near Ben-Gurion Airport and caused foreign airlines to halt their flights to Tel Aviv. Israel was neither involved nor consulted, and the deal notably left out any commitment by the Houthis to halt attacks against Israel. For many Israelis, it felt like a betrayal.
The concerns didn’t end there. Trump also appears eager to finalise a new nuclear deal with Iran, reminiscent of the controversial 2015 Obama-era agreement known as the JCPOA.
Mixed messages have emerged on whether Iran will be allowed to continue enriching uranium which is a red line for Jerusalem. In addition, Trump has reportedly told Israel not to use military force against Iran and to give him the chance to reach a new agreement.
Another troubling development was the report over the weekend that Trump will allow Saudi Arabia to pursue a civilian nuclear program. This was previously seen as a key bargaining chip to help pave the way for Saudi-Israeli diplomatic normalisation. Now, it appears Trump is offering Riyadh this gift without conditions, leaving Jerusalem isolated and without leverage.
Taken together, these developments have many Israeli officials privately questioning the depth and sincerity of Trump's supposed pro-Israel stance. Was the initial wave of enthusiastic support genuine, or something else?
However, there's another crucial perspective here, one that Israelis have historically struggled to fully grasp since, too often, relations with America are treated as a zero-sum game.
When Biden, for example, visited Israel just weeks into the war, it was a remarkable and historic show of solidarity and Israelis were genuinely moved. But that sentiment wore off quickly once he began criticising specific Israeli wartime decisions. It was hard to understand how the two could go together.
What Israelis need to keep in mind is that American presidents prioritise American interests. Trump has a clear affinity for Israel and has vocally supported the Jewish state in its battle against Islamic terrorism.
His Middle East trip, though, is not about Israel. It prioritises financial deals beneficial to the American economy. His willingness to engage Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE - while skipping Israel – is less about sidelining Jerusalem and more about pursuing immediate diplomatic and economic wins.
Consider the news that came out Sunday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent succeeded in negotiating a landmark trade deal with China – an achievement that, for this administration, overshadows nearly all other geopolitical concerns.
Does this imply a fundamental shift against Israel or a lack of concern for its security? Clearly not. It simply reflects Washington’s focus on its own strategic priorities at that moment.
To really understand Trump’s priorities we need to understand his interests. He returned to office determined to make deals and end wars. He is trying to end the war in Ukraine, the war in Gaza, and to reach trade deals with China and the Gulf. From Washington’s perspective, Israel’s continued fighting in Gaza now positions it as an obstacle to achieve these goals.
But that doesn’t mean that Trump’s moves signify an abandonment of Israel. Would he have preferred to make a deal with the Saudis and Israel at the same time? Certainly.
But when faced with the choice of either waiting for Israel or moving ahead with Saudi Arabia, he decided to advance. What this reflects is the inherent self-interest that drives American policymaking.
Israelis must internalise this truth: no matter how strong the friendship, US support will always have boundaries defined by America’s own national interests.
Acknowledging this doesn’t weaken Israel. A mature understanding allows Israel to better navigate its strategic interests and build stronger, more resilient partnerships based on realistic expectations.
Yaakov Katz is the co-author of the forthcoming book While Israel Slept about the October 7 Hamas attacks, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute, and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.
