The fall of the Dutch government last week could have profound consequences for the Jewish community and for relations with Israel. A possible new coalition led by left-wing parties may radically shift the traditionally positive stance towards Jerusalem.
Geert Wilders, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (PVV), the largest in the coalition, pulled the plug on June 3, ending a unique experiment in Dutch parliamentary history. Unique because of the unprecedented right-wing nature of the coalition: the PVV, conservative liberals VVD, the farmer-orientated BBB, and the New Social Contract (NSC), a Christian-Democrat breakaway.
Another novelty: none of the four party leaders became ministers, choosing instead to stay in the lower house. This was seen as a compromise to keep Wilders from becoming prime minister. That role went to Dick Schoof, a former civil servant with a security background, unaffiliated with the governing parties.
Expectations were high among right-wing voters after the PVV’s landslide victory on November 22, 2023. That success was partly driven by outrage over left-wing reactions to the October 7 Islamist massacres in Israel. Wilders is a staunch supporter of the Jewish state, and many Dutch were appalled by the left’s rapid shift from initial solidarity with Israeli victims to harsh criticism of Netanyahu, if not outright hostility toward Israel.
Wilders’ PVV has long been the anti-Islam, anti-immigration party in Dutch politics. Before October 7, it polled at 14 to 18 seats; by November it had surged to 37. For the first time since Wilders broke from the VVD in 2004, excluding him from government was both mathematically and politically implausible.
After the multi-party Schoof government was sworn in on July 2, 2024, after months of talks, standard in the Dutch system of proportional representation, a year of infighting and compromise followed. That’s common in Dutch politics, but PVV voters, promised radical change, were angered as none of the party’s hallmark policies, especially on immigration, were enacted.
In foreign policy Wilders seemed to have no influence on the government whatsoever. Foreign secretary Caspar Veldkamp (NSC), a former ambassador to Israel, shocked the PVV by calling an inquiry into alleged Israeli war crimes in Gaza, insisting that he would not support an extension of the EU’s association treaty with the Jewish State before the conclusion of such an investigation. No one had expected this from a Dutch government and least of all from this Dutch government, made up of four parties that were all considered solidly pro-Israel.
Wilders was quick to condemn Veldkamp’s bombshell, but it was considered embarrassing for the PVV that this policy change was announced by a coalition that includes his own staunchly pro-Israeli party. When Wilders finally pulled the plug on the government last week, the main issue was immigration and asylum, but undoubtedly the cabinet’s new line on the war in Gaza played a part in his decision.
The government will continue to function, without PVV ministers, until the October 29 elections. The Netherlands doesn’t do snap elections. Pundits predict a two-horse race: the liberal VVD, led by Turkish-born Dilan Yesilgöz-Zegerius (whose husband is Jewish), versus a new left-wing party formed by the merger of Labour (PvdA) and the Greens, and led by ex-EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans.
The VVD is traditionally strongly pro-Israel. The same could be said once about Timmermans’ PvdA, but the merger with the Greens has catapulted his Social Democrats to the left and far away from its traditional support of the Jewish state and indeed its historic roots: the socialist movement in the Netherlands began with the Jewish-dominated union of diamond cutters.
Especially since October 7, the Dutch left has radicalised. Last week, a group of Green-Left members called on the new party to support the BDS movement and even expressed support for Hamas’ “armed resistance”. Pro-Palestinian activists announced that they want to turn the party conference later this month into a one-issue affair: the war in Gaza and sanctions against Israel.
Many in the traditionally progressive Dutch Jewish community are alarmed, drifting towards centrist and right-wing parties. Experts expect a broad coalition, possibly VVD, Christian Democrats, Timmermans’ left bloc, and Israel-critical parties such as D66 or Volt. Such a coalition could sour ties with Israel, with only the VVD to hold the line.
Yet Wilders may still be a force to be reckoned with after the November elections, despite the old saying in the Hague that whoever breaks a coalition, pays for it. Many of the voters who turned to him for the first time in late 2023 are expected to turn their backs on the PVV, given that the party didn’t achieve any of its goals in government. But Wilders has had a loyal following for two decades and chances are immigration and asylum will once again be the main campaign issue.
For pro-Israel Jews, the majority of Dutch Jewry, Wilders’ return could mean a more sympathetic government, especially since Yesilgöz hasn’t ruled out working with the PVV. Antisemitism in the Netherlands has surged since October 7. That many Jews now favour a far-right party in government over left-wing progressives shows how deeply the Gaza war has disrupted what was once the calm and domestically focused landscape of Dutch politics.
Bart Schut is a Dutch journalist
