Even as Israel still remains locked in a struggle with Iran and its Shiite proxy network, another –potentially more dangerous – adversary is emerging: could Turkey replace Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance” with its own Sunni ring of fire encircling the Jewish state?
Tensions between the two most powerful military players in the Middle East – Israel and Turkey –are escalating in Syria. Ironically, both played a role in bringing down Assad. By degrading the regime’s main allies – Hezbollah and their patron, Iran – Israel cleared the way for Turkish-backed jihadists to advance.
Now the law of unintended consequences is dragging Israeli and Turkish forces into each other’s crosshairs. As Turkish-backed jihadists advanced, Israel launched precision strikes to stop Syrian assets from falling into Islamist hands. Two weeks ago, Israeli jets hit the T4 airbase in Homs – not to preempt Sunni militants this time, but their backers in Ankara. Turkish forces were reportedly eyeing the base for its drones and air-defence systems.
That was a red line. Such a move would have threatened Israel’s freedom of action in Syrian skies – vital for striking hostile targets in the past and, if needed, for reaching Iran’s nuclear facilities. The stakes are existential. The message got through. Turkey’s foreign minister responded by saying the country wasn’t seeking conflict. Azerbaijan, close to both sides, stepped in to mediate. Turkish and Israeli officials reportedly met in Baku to discuss deconfliction. Most significantly, President Trump offered to de-escalate during Netanyahu’s recent White House visit. US engagement is essential – only Washington has the trust and muscle to prevent direct confrontation.
However, let’s be clear about what’s really driving this conflict. This isn’t about “spheres of influence”. There’s no shared border, no territorial dispute, no buried historical grievance. As with Iran, this isn’t mutual animosity – it’s unilateral hostility. The source of aggression is Ankara and Ankara alone. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Islamist, neo-Ottoman vision, Turkey has become an active patron of Israel’s enemies. At a Ramadan service last month, Erdoğan offered this prayer: “May Allah... destroy and devastate Zionist Israel.”
We can’t simply dismiss such statements as empty rhetoric. October 7 proved, again, that antisemitic incitement leads to real-world bloodshed. Moreover, Erdoğan’s words are backed by policy. Turkey shelters key Hamas leaders, including Zaher Jabarin – considered to be the group’s West Bank operations chief and successor to Saleh al-Arouri, who was eliminated by Israel in Beirut. Just last month, Israel dismantled a Hamas cell in Nablus that had received $40,000 and attack instructions from handlers in Turkey.
Ankara’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood is a broader regional threat – especially to Jordan. As Kobi Michael argues opposite, a Brotherhood-led overthrow of the Hashemite monarchy would tighten the encirclement of Israel by Turkey-aligned Islamists.
None of this is to deny Turkey’s real security concerns. The refugee crisis is real. The Kurdish threat is real. Its desire to stabilise Syria is legitimate, and could be accommodated even under its stewardship – if Turkey were a normal state. But it’s not.
A state that shelters terrorists and calls for Israel’s destruction cannot be treated as just another partner with “complicated views”. It will be difficult for Israel to accept that such a country entrenches itself militarily at its northern border while controlling and arming the allegedly post-jihadist regime in Damascus.
This is why “neutral” US mediation won’t cut it. The Trump administration, which has made a point of confronting antisemitism at home, cannot turn a blind eye to state-sponsored incitement from a Nato partner. And after October 7 – and given America’s own painful history with Islamist terrorism – Washington cannot afford to ignore Turkey’s role in harbouring Hamas leaders.
Thankfully, the US has leverage. Turkey wants back into the F-35 programme. It wants American and Gulf support for Syria’s reconstruction, which could pour billions into Turkey’s construction sector. Erdoğan knows the price of global isolation. He just hopes Washington doesn’t make him pay it.
Any US-brokered deal must therefore not only respect Israel’s military red lines but address the root cause of the conflict. Trump must resist the temptation to trade long-term security for short-term quiet. If Erdoğan wants F-35s and Western investment, the price must be real. Expel Hamas. Cut ties with terror groups. End incitement that also endangers Turkey’s own Jewish community. Because words have consequences – and after October 7, we know exactly what that looks like.
