Friday June 13, will go down in annuls of military history, as another highly significant day for the IDF. The audacious, preventative strikes carried by Israel targeting senior Iranian military commanders, nuclear sites and advanced weapons systems – appears according to preliminary assessments to have succeeded beyond expectations. It took several hours through Friday day, for what remains of Iran’s command and control structure to shake free of their initial shock, compose themselves and launch counter-strikes.
These attacks on Iran, have been a long time coming, decades, and were earned honestly as Iran has consistently pushed the boundaries in their pursuit of regional destabilisation and for a nuclear bomb. The proxy or shadow Israel – Iran war, arguably dates back 40 years and the founding of Hezbollah. In the Iranian plan, under the ring of fire doctrine, they were to have been the vanguard leading the counter-attack against Israel The fact that as of time of writing there has not been a single rocket fired from Lebanon is astounding and attests to last year’s formidable routing of what was the most powerful and heavily invested Iranian proxy.
There have been several historical moments in the past, when Israel could have, or almost acted against the nuclear programme. It was back early on in Netanyahu’s second government in 2010 when he along with his Defence Minister Ehud Barak sought to gain approval from the professional security leadership to attack. They faced opposition from then IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and the late legendary head of Mossad, Meir Dagan who maintained, “Israel will attack by itself only if the knife is already at its throat.”
That moment arrived, three factors influenced the current timing; Hezbollah’s defeat, an amenable president in the White House, alongside Iran’s advanced nuclear programme, (high levels of uranium enrichment, prospect of soon installing more advanced centrifuges and their parallel development of a weaponisation programme). A united Israeli leadership decided now was the time to act.
The Iranian threat, both nuclear and conventional (via their missiles programme and regional proxies) have long constituted the great modern threat to Israel and the Jewish people. Prime Minister Netanyahu has long made the argument, and taken three takeaway messages that can be learnt from the Shoah regarding the Iranian threat. Lesson one: When someone calls for the destruction of the Jewish people- believe them and take them seriously. Note numerous threats from the Iranian supreme leader. Secondly, it is always better to strike first, pre-emptively, than wait to justify a response. This he used as a critique of the allies to the question, why did they not bomb the train tracks leading to Auschwitz. The third lesson (in light of that failing), is that at the end of the day, Israel must be prepared to act alone and not rely on the goodwill of the international community or even close allies (that again in the case of the train -tracks).
So it proved early Friday morning, when despite the anticipated final attempt at diplomacy, and the sixth round of US- Iran talks scheduled for Sunday, (now understood as part of a ruse by the US), Israel launched their strikes independently.
Since the initial strikes, the Israeli Air Force has continued to strike targets across Iran, have established an air corridor and air supremacy over the skies of Tehran. Nevertheless since Friday night early Saturday morning the Iranian counter attacks with ballistic missiles and attack drones has begun.
Here in Jerusalem, as well as the rest of the country, we were under instruction by Home Front Command, that no gatherings should be held, including services in synagogues over the Sabbath. Instead one of my neighbours invited me to a small pirate minyan (quorum of ten men). It was a typical Jerusalem gathering; an academic, a high-tech guy, a lawyer, myself and our sons, including one soldier on leave. We debated the relative safety of Jerusalem, compared to Tel Aviv and the centre and the prospects for the night ahead.
Someone mentioned that the weekly Torah reading - Behalotecha, was the same one as when in June 1981 Israel destroyed Iraq’s nuclear reactor. The reading contains the line, “and when you go to war in your land against the enemy that oppresses you, then you shall sound an alarm with the trumpets, and you shall be remembered before the Lord you God, and you shall be saved from your enemies.” When we reconvened for prayers in the morning, people wearily emerging out of their safe rooms, the soldier had been called back to base in the middle of the night.
At the time of writing this on Saturday night, we are facing bombardment for a second night, with tragic reports of more Israeli civilian casualties and fatalities. We don’t know if we are entering day three of another iconic week long war, that will reset and reshape the region for years to come, or only the start if a much longer brutal campaign that will test the fortitude and resilience of the people and the army. In another impressive intelligence and operational coup, in tandem to the attacks in Iran, Israel also struck the Houthis leadership in Yemen.
It seems clear that Israel will continue to pursue their military objectives, having begun with such elan, they must ensure the job is completed, so that the shadow of Iranian nuclear ambitions have been obliterated or at least pushed back substantially. Prime Minister Netanyahu is often keen to remind listeners that the war is against the regime, not the Iranian people for whom have a storied role in Jewish history going back to Cyrus the Great. The removal of the Iranian threat will be celebrated across the region, and should provide further impetus for future normalisation with Saudi Arabia and other pragmatic Muslim countries. Whist the operation continues, and Israelis need to stay vigilant to the Home Front Command, we should not forget that the war in Gaza remains unresolved and 53 hostages of whom 20 are still alive remain in brutal Hamas captivity now for over 617 days.
Richard Pater is the chief executive of BICOM (www.bicom.org.uk) and a political analyst based in Jerusalem
