On October 6, 2023 – what now feels like an eternity ago – Israel stood on the cusp of a transformative diplomatic breakthrough: normalising relations with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the symbolic heart of Islam and largest economy in the Middle East.
Such an agreement would have marked the crowning achievement of the Abraham Accords, building on historic deals already established during President Trump’s first term in office between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan. These accords were not just merely symbolic gestures. They reflected a pragmatic alignment of interests involving economic cooperation, cultural exchange and shared security concerns.
In the first three years following the signing of the 2020 Abraham Accords, the pace of integration between Israel and its new Arab partners was seismic. Trade between Israel and the Abraham Accords countries surged from virtually nothing in 2019 to over $10 billion by 2023. Tourism also boomed. More than one million Israelis – almost a tenth of the country’s citizenry – visited the UAE during that time, supported by more than 200 weekly direct flights between the two countries.
Saudi Arabia formalising ties with the State of Israel back in October 2023 would have pushed this progress to an entirely new level, further isolating the Islamic Republic of Iran and its web of terror proxies and creating real momentum toward a more stable and integrated Middle East. Riyadh is a regional economic powerhouse. It is also a religious and cultural authority as the birthplace of Islam and home to the religion’s two holiest cities, Mecca and Medina.
A normalisation agreement between the Saudis and Israelis then would have sent a clear message to the rest of the region – and the world – that coexistence, not conflict, was the new order of the day.
But that future was violently interrupted. Desperate, the Iranian regime’s proxy in Gaza, Hamas, launched a deadly massacre in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, and triggered a regional conflagration. The barbaric murder, kidnapping and sexual violence seen on that day – the deadliest in Israel’s history – was not just an act of terrorism. It was a calculated – and temporarily successful – attempt to derail further normalisation between Israel and its Arab and Muslim neighbours.
Yet today, some 21 months later, hopes for an expanded and deeper iteration of the Abraham Accords remain very much alive. In order to return to this dynamic, though, Israel has had to execute a series of extraordinary military and intelligence feats. From the eliminations of Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammad Sinwar and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, to Israel’s pre-emptive strikes on nuclear and military facilities across Iran, Iran’s existentially threatening presence encircling Israel’s borders collapsed, paving the way for a more promising future for Israelis, Palestinians and the broader region.
Instead of improving the lives of ordinary Iranians inside Iran, Tehran’s clerical leaders spent years, and hundreds of millions of dollars, assembling an “axis of resistance” designed to decimate Israel. With the imminent threat removed – and with President Trump and his administration hyper-focused on restoring peace in the region – the region faces a rare window of opportunity to return to the path of further normalisation and mutual prosperity.
Critics of the Accords argue that such a strategy fails to address the Palestinian issue. That’s wrong, as shown by a group of five leading Palestinian sheikhs in Hebron, governed by the Palestinian Authority, writing to the Israeli government about their desire to join the Abraham Accords and recognise the State of Israel.
The October 7 terror attacks have ravaged the Middle East for close to two years. With the Islamic Republic and its proxies now on the backfoot, we face a historic opportunity to shift from defence to dialogue. From endless cycles of bloodshed to an era marked by diplomacy and reconciliation. Perhaps an expanded Abraham Accords could become a 21st century embodiment of Theodor Herzl’s famous words: “If you will it, it is no dream.”
Jonathan Harounoff, Israel’s international spokesperson to the United Nations, is the forthcoming author of “Unveiled: Inside Iran’s #WomanLifeFreedom Revolt
